Thursday, September 24, 2015

Republican mythology

Re: TENNESSEAN Sep 21 Opinion/Voices, Glen Casada, Democrats abandon long-held beliefs:  
     Before the mid 1960s, political white supremacists in Southern States were in the Democratic Party, the south having been defeated by the north under Republican leadership a century earlier.  Casada misses fondly that good-old-boy Democratic party.
     After the Civil-Rights and Voting-Rights acts nurtured by the Kennedy/Johnson administration, white supremacists jumped to the Republican Party.  Casada abhors the supremacist-depleted Democratic party.
     Casada faults the Democratic Party for no longer reflecting the beliefs of its conservative founders.  Both exploited slaves -- one raped his 15-year-old slave girl and enslaved their issue, the other dispossessed whole tribes of native Americans, murdering thousands in the process.
     The Reagan code -- conservatism, low taxes, small government, personal responsibility, trickle-down job creation, welfare cheat, market forces -- is about perpetual white advantage.

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Migration Dynamics

 *  Migration evokes sentiments in destination nations and in onlookers.  What sentiments are justified, instinctive, ethical, practical, enlightening?  Worry or despair might qualify for all of these.
 *  After WWII, European nations implemented reforms to reduce the chance of war among themselves and to restrain racism, eventually uniting economically.  They committed to protecting refugees, contrary to their tradition and to tribal drives instinctive to us all.  Several European leaders recently sought to help thousands of immigrants from North Africa and the Middle East, but this required an ability to distribute migrants rationally among European countries, a plan that was rejected by most countries.  Because of this and the overwhelming numbers, several of the initially welcoming countries now try to stop the flow.  A refugee-distribution plan might be doomed by visa-free travel among European countries.
 *  I believe that civilization will be better with Europeans than with Moslems controlling Europe.  If so, Europe needs to stem the immigrant flow upstream – destroying smuggler's boats, supporting governments faced with rebellion, helping failed countries achieve economic balance, promoting birth control worldwide.
 *  What about the justice and ethics of stemming immigration?  Perhaps Europeans deserve  the immigration as punishment for their(our) crimes against all non-Europeans, centuries of stealing lands, resources and lives of non-Europeans in all continents but Antarctica.  As a product and beneficiary of such crimes, I would deserve such punishment but can't wish for it.  A just and omnipotent observer might very well encourage and facilitate the migration we are witnessing, unless she sees something valuable and irreplaceable in European culture -- for example, a half century of reason, fairness and responsibility, earlier Shakespeare, Vivaldi and Beethoven.  They(we) might be partially forgiven, since it seems impossible for tribes with more communication, organization and technology to resist dominating and exploiting tribes with less.
 *  Considering how much Europeans have harmed and exploited non-Europeans for centuries, we should at least recognize a debt to the descendants of the harmed and exploited.  Can we help the latter in some way that partially discharges that debt, short of welcoming them to over-run Europe and lands now dominated by Eurotypes?
 *  Migration pressure spiked this year due to conflicts in the source countries, but that pressure has been high and rising for decades and is becoming explosive due to unconstrained reproductive drive, as argued in an earlier essay:  Of cells, people, tribes, nations and tumors .
 *  Actual fertility rates of various countries are listed in the Table below.  Those countries with fertility rates above 3 are irresponsibly setting the stage for an exploding Population Bomb.  Every country with a fertility rate below 3 should band together to exclude migration from and economic aid to the exploding regions that do nothing to bridle their fertility.  Note the insanely high rates in arid regions and middle Africa.  How much of that is due to the Reagan/Republican gag rule?
 *  The idea that a country with a fertility rate < 2 needs immigrants is simple minded.  There are plenty of ways for reproductively responsible nations to achieve prosperous steady states.  Unbridled free-trade capitalism isn't one of them.
 *  Consider the tar-baby character of foreign conflicts.  As a world-entangled nation, we are expected to and feel compelled to pass judgement on combatants, to stick our noses in where benign neglect would be better.  We often side with ignorant populations against greedy leaders, encouraging rebellion where stability would be better for all.  Perhaps we did too little of this in Latin America over the past century,  but we probably did too much of it at the end of the cold war.  I postulate that the the west and the Arab states would be better off had we kept our hands and mouths out of Arab politics after 1991.  Iraq is a cauldron of ISIS toxins.  Tunisia is suffering increased Islamist crimes and is cultivating ISIS soldiers.  Egypt illegitimately returned to military rule rightly fearing duly elected Islamist rulers.  Libya now hosts an endless struggle among clans and militias.  The Syrian rebellion created ISIS, as al-Assad warned.  We couldn't resist meddling in these conflicts on the side of destruction.
 *  Syrian rebels are guilty of massive and widespread harm, and we are guilty of encouraging them.  Those wishing to condemn al-Assad should consider the impossibility of governing a nation with permeable borders overrun by Iraqi refugees, with several irreconcilable tribes/religions, with an unprecedented global-warming drought and with few marketable resources.  We revere Abraham Lincoln, who mobilized all deadly weapons available against our rebellion.
 *  Plausibly leaders cling to power in Arab and African countries because they fear retribution for tyrannical rule, and/or they are of a tribe or clan that would be oppressed after losing control of the police and military.  More stable countries like us could help such countries transfer power peacefully by providing attractive retirement packages for their leaders.


Niger 7.6                              Egypt 2.8
Mali 6.9                                Belize 2.7
Somalia 6.7                            Morocco 2.7
Chad 6.4                               Saudi Arabia 2.7
Burundi 6.1                            Botswana 2.7
Dem Rep Congo 6.0              Kuwait 2.6
Nigeria 6.0                              Fiji 2.6
Angola 6.0                              Guyana 2.6
Uganda 6.0                             Ecuador 2.6
Gambia 5.8                            Kazakhstan 2.6
Zambia 5.7                              Nicaragua 2.5
Burkina Faso 5.7                     Uzbekistan 2.5
Malawi 5.5                              Dominican Republic 2.5
Timor-Leste 5.3                      India 2.5
Tanzania 5.3                           Panama 2.5
Mozambique 5.3                    World  Average 2.5
Afghanistan 5.1                      Peru 2.4
Republc of Congo 5.0            Mongolia 2.4
South Sudan 5.0                     Guam (US) 2.4
Guinea 5.0                              Venezuela 2.4
Guinea-Bissau 5.0                  South Africa 2.4
Senegal 5.0                             Libya 2.4
Equatorial Guinea 4.9            Seychelles 2.4
Benin 4.9                              Nepal 2.4
CĆ“te d'Ivoire 4.9                    Indonesia 2.4
Liberia 4.9                            Turkmenistan 2.4
Cameroon 4.9                         Sri Lanka 2.3
Eritrea 4.8                              Cabo Verde 2.3
Comoros 4.8                          Colombia 2.3
Sierra Leone 4.8                    Suriname 2.3
Mauritania 4.7                       Maldives 2.3
Togo 4.7                              Jamaica 2.3
Ethiopia 4.6                            Bhutan 2.3
Rwanda 4.6                            Mexico 2.2
Madagascar 4.5                       El Salvador 2.2
Sudan 4.5                                Bangladesh 2.2
Kenya 4.5                                CuraƧao (Netherlands) 2.2
Centrl Afrcn Repubc 4.5         Grenada 2.2
Samoa 4.2                                Kosovo 2.2
Yemen 4.2                               Argentina 2.2
Sao Tome & Principe 4.1        Tunisia 2.2
Gabon 4.1                                New Caledonia (France) 2.1
Solomon Islands 4.1                Antigua and Barbuda 2.1
Iraq 4.1                                   Bahrain 2.1
Gaza Strp & West Bnk 4.1      French Polynesia (France) 2.1
Ghana 3.9                                Turkey 2.1
Guatemala 3.8                         Uruguay 2.1
Papua New Guinea 3.8            New Zealand 2.1
Tajikistan 3.8                           Population Replacement 2.1
Tonga 3.8                                 Iceland 2.0
Zimbabwe 3.6                          Qatar 2.0
Djibouti 3.5                              St. Vincent and the Grenadines 2.0
Vanuatu 3.4                              Brunei 2.0
Swaziland 3.4                           Ireland 2.0
Micronesia 3.3                          France 2.0
Jordan 3.3                                 Azerbaijan 2.0
Pakistan 3.3                              North Korea 2.0
Bolivia 3.3                                Greenland (Denmark) 2.0
Haiti 3.2                                   Malaysia 2.0
Laos 3.1                                   Myanmar (Burma) 2.0
Namibia 3.1                              St. Lucia 1.9
Kyrgyzstan 3.1                         Australia 1.9
Lesotho 3.1                               Iran 1.9
Philippines 3.1                          Sweden 1.9
Honduras 3.1                            United Kingdom 1.9
Israel 3.0                                  Bahamas, The 1.9
Syria 3.0                                  United States 1.9
Kiribati 3.0                               Norway 1.9
Paraguay 2.9                             Barbados 1.8
Cambodia 2.9                           Chile 1.8
Oman 2.9                                 United Arab Emirates 1.8
Algeria 2.8                                Sint Maarten (French part) 1.8
_____________________________________________________
Georgia 1.8                               Liechtenstein 1.5
Brazil 1.8                                  Bulgaria 1.5
Costa Rica 1.8                          Lebanon 1.5
Virgin Islands (US) 1.8            Cyprus 1.5
Finland 1.8                                Moldova 1.5
Trinidad and Tobago 1.8          Cuba 1.5
Belgium 1.8                              Czech Republic 1.5
Vietnam 1.8                              Austria 1.4
Bermuda (UK) 1.8                    Latvia 1.4
Albania 1.8                               Macedonia 1.4
Armenia 1.8                              Malta 1.4
Denmark 1.7                             Mauritius 1.4
Netherlands 1.7                        Thailand 1.4
Aruba (Netherlands) 1.7           Japan 1.4
Montenegro 1.7                         Italy 1.4
China 1.7                                   Germany 1.4
Puerto Rico (US) 1.6                 Slovak Republic 1.3
Belarus 1.6                                 Greece 1.3
Canada 1.6                                 Hungary 1.3
Lithuania 1.6                              Spain 1.3
Russia 1.6                                   Serbia 1.3
Slovenia 1.6                                Poland 1.3
Luxembourg 1.6                         South Korea 1.3
Estonia 1.6                                  Singapore 1.3
Ukraine 1.5                                 Hong Kong (China) 1.3
Romania 1.5                                Portugal 1.3
Switzerland 1.5                           Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.3
Croatia 1.5                                 San Marino 1.3
Croatia 1.5                                   Macau (China) 1.1

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependent_territories_by_fertility_rate

Saturday, September 12, 2015

Problems in the GOP stable

 *  By their fruits ye shall know them (Matt 7:16).  You can't judge a book by its cover.  I have confirmed these maxims many times, seeing that the most accomplished of my colleagues showed no outward signs of it.  Yet prejudice is so natural.  We naturally judge people by their appearance or other irrelevancies: race, religion, gender, age, language, lineage, dress, cosmetics, trappings.  Visual appeal sells cars, clothes, homes, mates, entertainers and leaders.
 *  The US is lucky that Obama came along to bring previously missing contemplation and objectivity to the presidency.  That his ascendance was attended by fear and loathing among Fox-News followers before his initiatives were implemented can only be attributed to his race or other irrelevancies.
 *  I now find myself indulging in prejudice.  Since he came on the scene decades ago, I could never countenance Donald Trump's voice or face.  That was before he revealed himself to be so conceited, entitled, narcissistic, disrespectful, shallow, vulgar, dismissive, before he stiffed investors and creditors in his four bankruptcies.  It was probably my existential abhorrence of conspicuous consumption upon hearing about his gold faucets.  If Trump wins the presidency, my life will end in transcendental torment even if he leads wisely.
 *  On further reflection, though, the other GOP contenders have pledged to enrich the rich at the expense of essential social programs, so Trump might be the least subversive of the lot.  He is, however, unpredictable and impulsive, might start a war on a whim, like Bush/Cheney.

Friday, August 28, 2015

Recreational Discussion


 * Discontentment and discouragement are widespread.  Much is suboptimal or harmful.  Responses to discontentment often seem misguided and ineffective.  Can one identify procedures that would produce satisfactory responses and results?  Perhaps the following framework would be worth considering.

1) Characterize the unsatisfactory condition.
2) Analyze the chain of events that gave rise to the unsatisfactory condition.
3) Describe the condition as it should be.
4) Consider counterfactual but possible chains of events that might have resulted in the should-be condition.
5) Imagine possible chains of events that might lead from the actual condition to the should-be condition.
6) Imagine unfavorable side effects of these remedial chains of events.
7) Consider alternatives that might improve the target condition with less undesirable side effects.

How might this framework be improved?
Can one describe or identify a satisfactory society, beyond amelioration?  How might it not be too boring?

 * Among the unsatisfactory conditions that might be discussed with the above framework are the following:
a) The prevalence of discouragement and disaffection among black citizens.
b) The widening income disparities among US population segments.
c) The gratuitous resource-to-waste conversion rate.
d) The growth of ISIS in population, influence and space.
e) Expansion of water-limited or land-limited populations.
f) The substance abuse among native Americans.
g) The absence of satisfaction even among successful people.
h) The prevalence of loneliness.
i) Tribes lacking rights (titles) to their native lands.
j) Turmoil due to infiltration of non-european tribes in Europe.
k) Imbalances in human resources, inclinations and societal needs.

Wednesday, August 19, 2015

LGBT weddings in church

 * In hopes of limiting harm to my church incident to its decision on same-sex weddings, I’m imagining characteristics of the decision and of the opposition, and the consequences thereof – the dynamics of the controversy as it might evolve.  In the short run, the church might decide either way, to prohibit or to allow such weddings.
 * Eventually, my church will surely allow them, as will most churches, because extending rights, protections and respect beyond ones tribe is consistent with the golden rule, the good Samaritan, the great commandment, Micah 6:8, Hebrews 13:2 and Matthew 25:35-40.  In implementing these lessons, it helps to imagine oneself as the other person or as an objective well-wishing observer.  Moreover, marriage is good for public health and social order, as well as happiness from companionship and from safely satisfying primitive drives with a loving and helpful mate.
 * About 15 years ago, my church’s most prominent member belittled and berated me for celebrating advancements in LGBT rights in a Letter to the Editor.  As an athlete himself, he should have known that I couldn’t enjoy success on a field tilted to my advantage with referees calling fouls in my favor.  Also, my Second-Sunday-Singalong banjoist left in anger.  Long, mutually beneficial relations may not survive this issue.
 * Judging from informal surveys, most of my contemporaries will oppose LGBT weddings in the church – based on scripture, personal taste, preference for like-minded company (tribalism), and evidence that liberalism poisons churches.  Those contemporaries led lives of integrity and kindness.  They supported good causes with their time, treasure, sweat and blood.  In their declining years, they deserve to be content with their righteousness and to see the church they built remain healthy and hospitable to them.  To protect their contentment, I didn’t join the retirees club.
 * I believe my anti-LGBT-wedding contemporaries should acquiesce when they see that LGBT weddings will happen at our church in the foreseeable future.  Trying to prevent the inevitable will harm the institution and their places in it.  They should take comfort in the fact that they needn’t witness any wedding that they don’t approve of.  Now that most Americans and their government approve of same-sex weddings, our church can conduct them without getting the feared liberal reputation.  They should recognize that their reasons for prohibiting LGBT weddings cannot justify humiliating LGBTs.
 * If  my anti-LGBT-wedding contemporaries win, the consequences might be worse for them than acquiescence.  Many younger and more energetic members disappointed with that win might leave, showing that more conservatism in church than in society might be toxic.  Others might stay and continue lobbying for same-sex marriage, reducing the overall gladness titre.  All that strife for a temporary delay.
 * On life’s final glide-path, I contemplate purpose, meaning and value, what matters enough to care about and work for.  I still hope to discover something enlightening and to share something beautiful.  I hope to make choices that contribute to a less harmful, less painful, less fearful, less hateful, more just and happier society – a nobler civilization.  That civilization would be inclusive.  Read the scriptures cited above.

Thursday, July 23, 2015

What about Iran

The following was written before Iran's leaders showed their brutal resistance to modern civil rights doctrines.
*  Leaders and thinkers of numerous countries accuse Iran of harmful actions and ambitions.  They expect Iran to use its soon to be improved relations and income to increase harm.  This is sad, inasmuch as Iran might have been our friend, but for factors outside its control.
 *  The Cold War forced us to vie with the Soviets for allies and resources around the world.  This competition corrupted numerous former colonies, and it caused us to subvert the 1953 election of a nationalist leader in Iran (by fomenting a riot), giving power to the Shah, who squandered his position and abused his subjects, and provided us cheap oil.  Therefore, we were justifiably targeted by the Islamic Revolution.  Their detention of our embassy personnel gave us the misanthropic Reagan revolution led now by Rush Limbaugh, so Iranians should feel adequately avenged.
 *  Having punished us that much, Iran might wish to reconcile with us when it ascends to a dominant position in the middle east.  It might have done so already were it not for the inflammatory effect of Palestinian suffering.  We may find ourselves cooperating willy-nilly in combating ISIS.
 *  Iran’s populace is almost homogeneous with respect to ethnicity and religion.  Consequently it will probably endure as a sovereign nation with stable borders and with submissive and/or supportive populace far into the future.  The rulers and populace belong to each other, unlike Syria, Iraq, Israel, Emirates, etc.  Moreover, its populace is educated, industrious and western leaning, unlike many of its near and distant neighbors.  Therefore, Iran should eventually be the most prosperous, stable, secure, disciplined and happy nation in the middle east.
 *  Most of Iran’s conflicts are elective, in support of its endangered friends.  Iran shouldn’t fear invasion or theft by neighbors except as provoked by its belligerence, but it does fear attack by various Sunni or Jewish neighbors.  That fear would be less if they were our friend.
 *  With respect to our dispute with Iran, qui bono?  I've been wondering about this for some time.