Friday, December 25, 2015

Aequanimitas

* Aequanimitas is clarity of judgment in face of peril, a battle cry of Roman soldiers, a motto of the Johns Hopkins Department of Medicine.  Sometimes I want to shout: aequanimitas cable news, aequanimitas talk radio, aequanimitas politicians, aequanimitas fellow citizens.  More clarity of judgment please.
* Aequanimitas would be proportional responses to life’s risks.  Between 2002 and 2013 terrorism deaths on US soil averaged 4 per year.  Between 1985 and 2013 (including 9/11) such deaths averaged about 110 per year.  In contrast, deaths from medical errors average more than 150,000/y, from car wrecks about 40,000/y, from gun violence about 10,000/y, and these are small compared to deaths from heart disease plus cancer 1,500,000/y or compared to total deaths 2,400,000/y.  (See previous post.)
*  Based on the past 30-year average, the probability of an individual American being killed on US soil by terrorism has been 1 in 22,000.  Based on the past 10-year average, it is 1 in 600,000.  We do not fear other hazards of such low probability.  While efforts to prevent terrorism are rational, the fear stirred up by pundits for profit and by politicians for power is irrational.
* Aequanimitas would include objective discussion of xenophobic/tribal/racist/acquisitive instincts and the need to control them in service of civilization.  Objective discussion seems unlikely to happen in the popular media.  !!!Aequanimitas popular media!!!

Wednesday, December 9, 2015

US Death Statistics

Death causes and annual incidence
http://seggleston.com/1/wp-content/custom/ds_index.php
Tobacco:         529,000
Medical Errors: 195,000
Alcohol Abuse: 107,400
Vehicle Accidents:  42,000
Suicide:           29,350
Drug Abuse:  25,500
Firearm Homicide:  10,828

In 2007 There Were 2,423,712 Total Deaths from All Causes
We List 53,196 Deaths from the Top 10 Causes in the Tables Below
http://seggleston.com/1/wp-content/custom/ds_2007_vio_by_age.php
1 Suicide Firearm         17,352
2 Homicide Firearm 12,632
3 Suicide Suffocation  8,161
4 Suicide Poisoning  6,358
5 Homicide Cut/pierce           1,981
6 Homicide Unspecified           1,846
7 Suicide Fall              731
8 Homicide Suffocation              637
9 Suicide Cut/pierce     619
10 Homicide (Other)     586
11 Suicide Drowning     358
12 Legal Intervention Firearm     351
13 Suicide Other Spec., classifiable    331
14 Suicide (Other)              236
15 Homicide Other Spec., classifiable    186
16 Homicide Struck by an Object     173
17 Suicide Unspecified              163
18 Suicide Fire/burn     157
19 Homicide Fire/burn              141
20 Suicide Transportation Related     131

http://seggleston.com/1/wp-content/custom/ds_2002.php
Major Cardiovasular Diseases 936,923
Malignant Neoplasms         553,091
Chronic Lower Respiritory Dis. 122,009
Diabetes Mellitus           69,301
Influenza and Pneumonia  65,313
Alzheimers           49,558
Motor Vehicle Accidents  43,354
Renal Failure           36,471
Septicemia           31,224
Firearms                   28,663

Accidental deaths
http://seggleston.com/1/wp-content/custom/ds_2007_acc_by_age.php
1 Motor Vehicle Traffic       42,031
2 Poisoning       29,846
3 Fall       22,631
4 Unspecified Cause 6,019
5 Suffocation         5,997
6 Drowning         3,443
7 Fire/burn         3,375
8 Other Land Transport         1,617
9 Other Specified Cause, Classifiabl 1,542
10 Natural/ Environment         1,449
11 Pedestrian, Other 1,138
12 Other Cause, Not Elsewhere Classed  1,113
13 Other Transport         1,039
14 Struck by or Against Object(s)   832
15 Machinery            659
16 Firearm            613
17 Pedal cyclist, Other            242
18 Cut/pierce            111
19 Overexertion                9

1 Heart Disease 616,067
2 Malignant Neoplasms 562,875
3 Cerebrovascular 135,952
4 Chronic Low. Respir Dis 127,924
5 Unintentional Injury 123,706
6 Alzheimer's Disease 74,632
7 Diabetes Mellitus 71,382
8 Influenza & Pneumonia 52,717
9 Nephritis 46,448
10 Septicemia 34,828
11 Suicide 34,598
12 Liver Disease 29,165
13 Hypertension 23,965
14 Parkinson's Disease 20,058
15 Homicide 18,361
16 Pneumonitis 16,988
17 Perinatal Period 14,599
18 Benign Neoplasms 14,204
19 Aortic Aneurysm 12,986
20 HIV         11,295

US Deaths from Terrorism
http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/terrorism/terror-rate.html
1985 2
1986 2
1987 0
1988 0
1989 2
1990 2
1991 1
1992 1
1993 15
1994 7
1995 171
1996 2
1997 2
1998 4
1999 218
2000 0
2001 2,998
2002 15
2003 0
2004 0
2005 0
2006 1
2007 0
2008 2
2009 18
2010 4
2011 6
2012 9
2013 5