Monday, March 19, 2007

Brittle Economy

The US economy is out of balance, hence the US way of life is unsustainable. We are too addicted to low consumer prices, high stock prices and convenience. Can a free society act rationally? We need to experiment with new ways to get things done.
1) We consume too much that we don't produce, so we spend much more on imports that we receive in revenues from exports. Our debts to foreign countries are huge and growing faster. Addiction to oil contributes much to this trade imbalance. Driving fuel-inefficient cars and living far from work are self destructive. Our building codes don't insist on high-R thermal envelopes and low surface/volume ratios. We have failed to support non-carbon (renewable, local) energy production. We have allowed too much of our manufacturing capacity to leave. These choices were political, not inevitable. As a result we are deep in debt to the more productive nations, most of which are not our friends.
2) US taxes are not sufficient to pay for federal programs. Our government spends much more than it takes in, with the result that national debt is huge and growing faster. Interest on that debt has become a very large component of the federal budget, which robs from programs and increases the debt even faster - the miracle of compound interest in reverse. Left as is, debt service will eventually consume the entire budget, ie it will be the only item in the budget. Debt service contributes to the negative trade balance. Cutting tax for economic stimulation is inefficient, temporary, undesirable. Satisfied, Grover Norquist & GW Bush?
3) Our culture and educational system don't sufficiently respect labor, encourage work ethic, teach trades, insist on work, reward hard labor. Fat, lazy & entitled are norms. We import workers at most levels: intellectuals, nurses, hospitality workers, builders, food producers and processors (We still grow inventors and entrepreneurs.) Many drop out of school early but don't have skills, work ethic or self respect to do needed work, and that work is so undercompensated that many who might be in that work force end up choosing crime while we import their replacements. The process is self augmenting. Some say that the massive import of laborers is necessary for several industries and to support our social-security system (which could be balanced by modest tweaking). One might ask whether an industry that needs massive imported labor is in need of more fundamental alteration to make it attractive to native citizens. There is no end of foreigners who would love to immigrate, but our population is already too big by some measures. The US will become like those places where the workers are coming from.
4) We believe that most problems can be solved by a growing economy. But economic activity is already bigger than the earth can support. Competition for energy, limitations of water, displacement of wildlife, pollution of air, water and land are consequences of expanding population and expanding economy. We are close to the maximal sustainable average world prosperity. It is hypocritical to pretend that a happier world will result from development of now small-footprint societies. The march for more economic activity is unsustainable. Time will come when Milton Friedman will be seen as the midwife of doom.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

All these faces of doom are real and looming larger each day. When we learn the importance of creating value as opposed to claiming value, these equations will be reversed. Collaboration among stakeholders can reverse this course. "Doing more with less" requires us to abandon the "I win at your expense" mentality which worked when resources were "inexhaustible". That is no longer the case and resort to efficiencies, respectful engagement and innovation will be the essential skills of the new leaders in business, commerce, education, and yes, even politics.