Wednesday, March 9, 2016

Wondering about nature

What would it be like to gather monthly with people curious and informed about nature, just to share curiosity and information with like-minded people?  Interesting topics are abundant.

What force started galaxies spinning coordinately, considering Newton’s laws of motion?

Do electron orbitals form ringing spherical bells more stable when symmetrical (satisfied)?

What does change of energy state look like with emission or absorption of photon?

Could gravity be a repulsive force from space shaded by matter?

Structure of superconductivity?

Structure of superfluidity?

In a gas (Hydrogen, Helium, etc), what is heat, temperature?

What are photon's dimensions?  How target matter?

Are radio waves emitted and captured in electron-jump packets?

What features of photons are same for all?

Interaction of transverse electron streams, in space, in wire?

Are stable magnetic fields particulate, granular?

Are stable electric fields particulate, granular?

Describe field of moving charge.

Appearance of still electric field seen by moving observer.  Moving grid.

Most distant objects viewed in curved space.  In opposite directions.

Meaning, value, ethics in deterministic universe, in a decaying universe.

Who owes national debt?  Need it be payed?  Where is it?

Profit, private wealth and debt distribution.

Consequences of free trade.

Imagine ethical tribalism.

Consequences of unfettered migration.

Ethics of rational migration.

Law: Peace despite primitive human drives.

What would racial justice look like?

Roles of, value of and need for recreation, entertainment, distraction.

Can we handle the truth?

Consider dynamic relations between adjustable independent variables (taxes, regulations, laws) and desired dependent variables (prosperity distribution, satisfaction distribution).

Tuesday, March 8, 2016

Short history of Republican conservatism

* Republicans are harvesting a half century of successfully cultivating conservative extremism.  It began with a gift of white supremacists from the Democratic party when Johnson signed the Voting Rights Act.  This gave rise to the southern strategy implemented by Republicans beginning with Nixon.
* It continued with Reagan’s claiming that federal programs to help the disadvantaged in fact harmed them, that unions and labor laws harmed laborers, that environmental regulations were silly, that international family-planning providers shouldn't be allowed to discuss abortion, that job loss from out-sourcing was offset by lower consumer prices, that all weapons systems deserve development, that tax-rate cuts would increase tax revenues.  Despite citizens’ love of tax cuts, Reagan wouldn’t have won were it not for Iranian revolutionaries holding Americans hostage during the election year.
* Under propaganda from the congress and industry, Clinton abandoned affordable health-care ambitions and added conservative initiatives of his own, like free trade, welfare reform and bank deregulation.  The country prospered owing to our head start in the digital revolution, the resulting productivity rise and associated financial speculation.
* With the help of Gore-caricaturing comedians and a conservative Supreme Court, Bush II followed Clinton, promising further tax cuts which he implemented.  When the national conversation turned to stagnation in Afghanistan, to Karl Rove’s urging 9/11 be put to maximal political advantage, and to insider trading at Harken Energy, Bush squelched that conversation by assembling troops in preparation for possible invasion of Iraq, leading to America’s biggest crime since slavery.  Hillary Clinton’s email flaws and Benghazi failures pale beside Bush’s cynical and disastrous use of military discretion.
* Inevitably bank deregulation, fair-housing programs, perverse bond ratings and an economic slowdown gave rise to financial collapse near the end of Bush’s tenure.  This was addressed first by bank bailouts and later by mortgage relief, because rational tools for addressing the predictable collapse could not be produced prophylactically by a government of checks and balances.  Rational tools (shovel-ready federal projects planned and waiting, reversible automatic mortgage adjustments) are still lacking.  The result has been vast profits for real-estate and stock-market speculators at the expense of the working class.
* Election of a black president woke up and consolidated Republican conservatives as Second-Amendment/Tea-Party fanatics.
* For the past three decades, the above political dynamics were accompanied by the rise of hateful and dishonest broadcasters, Rush Limbaugh and his imitators, occupying the anti-intellectual space created by Reagan. Also during that time, Republicans have diligently supported their candidates for local and state positions down to school boards; and, at every opportunity, they have systematically redrawn districts to maximize Republican success.  We have sorted ourselves into politically homogeneous districts, some where progressives, intellectuals, environmentalists, futurists, humorists, even moderate conservatives must self censor.
* The result is Republican presidential aspirants unfit for national leadership.

Friday, December 25, 2015

Aequanimitas

* Aequanimitas is clarity of judgment in face of peril, a battle cry of Roman soldiers, a motto of the Johns Hopkins Department of Medicine.  Sometimes I want to shout: aequanimitas cable news, aequanimitas talk radio, aequanimitas politicians, aequanimitas fellow citizens.  More clarity of judgment please.
* Aequanimitas would be proportional responses to life’s risks.  Between 2002 and 2013 terrorism deaths on US soil averaged 4 per year.  Between 1985 and 2013 (including 9/11) such deaths averaged about 110 per year.  In contrast, deaths from medical errors average more than 150,000/y, from car wrecks about 40,000/y, from gun violence about 10,000/y, and these are small compared to deaths from heart disease plus cancer 1,500,000/y or compared to total deaths 2,400,000/y.  (See previous post.)
*  Based on the past 30-year average, the probability of an individual American being killed on US soil by terrorism has been 1 in 22,000.  Based on the past 10-year average, it is 1 in 600,000.  We do not fear other hazards of such low probability.  While efforts to prevent terrorism are rational, the fear stirred up by pundits for profit and by politicians for power is irrational.
* Aequanimitas would include objective discussion of xenophobic/tribal/racist/acquisitive instincts and the need to control them in service of civilization.  Objective discussion seems unlikely to happen in the popular media.  !!!Aequanimitas popular media!!!

Wednesday, December 9, 2015

US Death Statistics

Death causes and annual incidence
http://seggleston.com/1/wp-content/custom/ds_index.php
Tobacco:         529,000
Medical Errors: 195,000
Alcohol Abuse: 107,400
Vehicle Accidents:  42,000
Suicide:           29,350
Drug Abuse:  25,500
Firearm Homicide:  10,828

In 2007 There Were 2,423,712 Total Deaths from All Causes
We List 53,196 Deaths from the Top 10 Causes in the Tables Below
http://seggleston.com/1/wp-content/custom/ds_2007_vio_by_age.php
1 Suicide Firearm         17,352
2 Homicide Firearm 12,632
3 Suicide Suffocation  8,161
4 Suicide Poisoning  6,358
5 Homicide Cut/pierce           1,981
6 Homicide Unspecified           1,846
7 Suicide Fall              731
8 Homicide Suffocation              637
9 Suicide Cut/pierce     619
10 Homicide (Other)     586
11 Suicide Drowning     358
12 Legal Intervention Firearm     351
13 Suicide Other Spec., classifiable    331
14 Suicide (Other)              236
15 Homicide Other Spec., classifiable    186
16 Homicide Struck by an Object     173
17 Suicide Unspecified              163
18 Suicide Fire/burn     157
19 Homicide Fire/burn              141
20 Suicide Transportation Related     131

http://seggleston.com/1/wp-content/custom/ds_2002.php
Major Cardiovasular Diseases 936,923
Malignant Neoplasms         553,091
Chronic Lower Respiritory Dis. 122,009
Diabetes Mellitus           69,301
Influenza and Pneumonia  65,313
Alzheimers           49,558
Motor Vehicle Accidents  43,354
Renal Failure           36,471
Septicemia           31,224
Firearms                   28,663

Accidental deaths
http://seggleston.com/1/wp-content/custom/ds_2007_acc_by_age.php
1 Motor Vehicle Traffic       42,031
2 Poisoning       29,846
3 Fall       22,631
4 Unspecified Cause 6,019
5 Suffocation         5,997
6 Drowning         3,443
7 Fire/burn         3,375
8 Other Land Transport         1,617
9 Other Specified Cause, Classifiabl 1,542
10 Natural/ Environment         1,449
11 Pedestrian, Other 1,138
12 Other Cause, Not Elsewhere Classed  1,113
13 Other Transport         1,039
14 Struck by or Against Object(s)   832
15 Machinery            659
16 Firearm            613
17 Pedal cyclist, Other            242
18 Cut/pierce            111
19 Overexertion                9

1 Heart Disease 616,067
2 Malignant Neoplasms 562,875
3 Cerebrovascular 135,952
4 Chronic Low. Respir Dis 127,924
5 Unintentional Injury 123,706
6 Alzheimer's Disease 74,632
7 Diabetes Mellitus 71,382
8 Influenza & Pneumonia 52,717
9 Nephritis 46,448
10 Septicemia 34,828
11 Suicide 34,598
12 Liver Disease 29,165
13 Hypertension 23,965
14 Parkinson's Disease 20,058
15 Homicide 18,361
16 Pneumonitis 16,988
17 Perinatal Period 14,599
18 Benign Neoplasms 14,204
19 Aortic Aneurysm 12,986
20 HIV         11,295

US Deaths from Terrorism
http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/terrorism/terror-rate.html
1985 2
1986 2
1987 0
1988 0
1989 2
1990 2
1991 1
1992 1
1993 15
1994 7
1995 171
1996 2
1997 2
1998 4
1999 218
2000 0
2001 2,998
2002 15
2003 0
2004 0
2005 0
2006 1
2007 0
2008 2
2009 18
2010 4
2011 6
2012 9
2013 5

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Default Respect, civilization's essential

  * Stephen Colbert should apologize to America for an event on his Nov-9 show.  One of his guests, after playing a bassoon threw it on the floor to destroy it.  Colbert joined in the destruction.  The sensational way several rock-and-roll and/or country artists have ended their performances should not be blessed by anyone with a conscience.
  * Years ago, a poor musician friend told me that stars should just give their instruments to needy musicians, sensationalistically if they wish.
  * But there is another reason for eschewing instrument destruction.  It adds to the superabundance of contempt in our society, as do Rush Limbaugh and Donald Trump.
  * Colbert should investigate the dedication, devotion, knowledge, skill, care and patience that go into a hand-crafted musical instrument.   It deserves great admiration and appreciation, ie respect.
  * If we ever have a great civilization, its prime characteristic will be default respect -- that is, respect for everyone who hasn't earned disrespect.
  * I believe Colbert could present these ideas persuasively in a thoughtful apology.

Sing and Ring

  *  Recreational music has contributed greatly to my enjoyment of life.  Recently I've been arranging a carol for small chorus and four instruments, a song that I translated to English back in 1995, Sing and Ring by Corner 1631.  The recent arrangement is for a very small church, Bellevue Christian Church.  I'm attempting to mimic the main musical themes created and performed by Michael Graham with a large chorus and small orchestra in Woodmont Christian Church about y2001.
  *  Here is our performance, Dec 13, 2015 in the little church:   Sing and Ring , Bellevue Christian Church

Keyboard/Voice Score:

Sunday, November 1, 2015

Bridled Capitalism

Re: “Follies of socialism” by Wesson Smith, Tennessean Oct 25.
  * Mr Smith wishes us to know that he is self-sufficient and that he resents government expenditures to help those who aren’t.  He can expect a life of resentment, since the unbridled capitalism that he seeks is unsatisfying, unsustainable, unstable, corrupting and unjust.
  * With each increase of productivity (goods & services) and each spread of production over a wider base, the US man hours needed to satisfy society's needs and desires falls below US man-hour capacity.  White American males feel this especially, as work they once monopolized moves to women, minorities, foreigners, computers, robots, etc.  Ever smaller fractions of people can be fully employed unless we reduce the full-employment hours well below 40 h/wk.
  * Macroeconomic actions to increase employment are futile, resource destructive and debt intensive.  Needed are regulations to achieve steady-state economics.  That would include limits on annual conversion of non-renewable resources to waste, international family-planning cooperation, incentives to provide goods and services needed by society (Bridled Capitalism).